Bloody October: Reflections on a Widening International Conflict

by Hamid Daie

(10/20/03) Fifteen days have now expired in October, and I would have to say that this has been a very troublesome month in the evolution of events in the Middle East.

I have long suspected that we are in the early stages of World War III and, as everyday passes, it becomes clear, at least in this writer's mind, that I have been accurate like many others.

Early in the month, we saw an escalation in the Middle East conflict when Israel attacked Syrian facilities that were purportedly training grounds for Al-Queda and other terrorist operatives. Not surprisingly, the Syrian government has denounced the attacks and turned to the UN for a resolution regarding this event.

Furthermore, the Syrians are now on the record saying that they will defend themselves from any future provocations. How serious they are, and what they are willing to do is another story; however, internet-based reports indicate that Syria and the Saudis have been moving their Air Force fighter jets within striking distance of Israel. Not to be outdone, the Israelis have been amassing their troops on their northern borders with Lebanon.

Of course, an analysis of the Middle East without a careful look at the Iranian position and posture is incomplete. According to Reuters, An Iranian exile opposition group with a "record of exposing secret atomic sites" says Tehran is hiding another nuclear facility and could have a nuclear bomb by 2005.

Interestingly, this revelation sets up the perfect scenario for a pre-emptive strike on Iran after the November 2004 elections here in the United States.

It would seem to me that an attack before that time would be detrimental to our administration's hopes to retain the presidency in 2004, although this administration has been able to repeatedly woo over a weary and frightened American populous. The Iranian government does not help itself either as it is reported that the regime in Tehran harbors some members of Al-Queda.

If this assertion is credible and the government of Iran fails to turn over these members over to an international body to be tried for their crimes against humanity, then Iran will certainly face the full wrath of the American military in 2005.

The Russians have now started to remilitarize, and they have hinted to the Germans that they may switch to the Euro for making petroleum transactions, a blow to a weakening dollar.

The Chinese are seemingly silent; or more likely, this writer is failing to ascertain the Chinese position. Of course, they face regional concerns such as North Korea's appetite for nuclear weapons. One thing is for certain: China is an impressive power to be dealt with. Additionally, they have just become the third country to launch a human being into space, and they possess a robust and growing manufacturing-based economy with a dynamic work force. With a population of over one 1.25 billion people, I would hate to see what they are capable of doing should they be dragged into this spreading wildfire.

Of course, the real theatre of the battle remains inMesopotamia, the heart of the Middle East, where we are now witnessing an incredible struggle over the future of humanity. It is now clear that civil war has erupted in Iraq as various factions are jockeying for position and power, and our young men and women are having an incredible task keeping any semblance of peace and normalcy. Baghdad remains and becomes ever more dangerous as the resistance to the occupation or the liberation, depending on your perspective, is steaming up as exemplified in the car bombing outside of the Turkish embassy. Certainly, it is clear that elements within Iraqi society do no welcome the arrival of Turkish troops to their land. Daily attacks are killing weary American soldiers at a rate of 1-2 per day, and are injuring many more troops.

These young men and women are facing 10-20 attacks per day (depending on the source that you read). The short-term solution to stabilizing Iraq would be: 1. To increase the number of our troops on the battlefield, or 2. To completely withdraw our forces.

Both scenarios are unlikely to put the jinni back in to the bottle. Iraq has turned into a mess and will be like that for years to come.

Hamid Daie can be reached at hdaie@yahoo.com